Why Obama is going to lose…

Because he’s with losing independents, silly. The problem with all of the polling this year is the turnout ratio between Democrats and Republicans. Conventional wisdom is that more Democrats will vote than Republicans but their advantage will be nowhere near the 2008 high water mark. So it’s really hard to discern whose winning because their likely voter polls vary widely in what they are showing in terms of party affiliation. But independents are going to make up somewhere close to a third of the electorate and so the polling among independents may be the best indicator of who is really winning.

Of the polls that appear Real Clear Politics average that give out splits Romney is leading among independents in every one of them

IBD/TIPP: Romney is winning independents by 11. Note that this poll has the race tied so they are showing a big advantage for Democrats in terms of turnout which is highly unlikely.

Rasmussen: I subscribe to Rasmussen so I have the splits. They are showing Romney up by 9 among independents and only up by 2 overall. Again this suggests that they are overstating the number of Democrats that will make up the electorate.

Politico/GWU/Battleground: This poll has Romney up by 8 among independents and Obama up by 1 overall. If Romney is winning independents by such a large margin then this poll is obviously showing a huge Democrat turnout likely.

Monmouth/Survey USA: This poll has Romney up 3 among independents and Romney up 1 overall.

Fox News: This poll has Romney up 12 with independents but only up 1 overall.

If Romney wins independents by 7-8 points as current polling suggests then he’ll win the popular vote comfortably.



11 thoughts on “Why Obama is going to lose…

  1. All these ‘freakin polls with all their contradictions..blah..blah…are enough to drive one NUTS! Until you click on Babalu.(Oye pero la verdad que aqui en Babalu se aprenden cosas!)

  2. My fear is that Romney wins the popular vote by around 2 million votes gets 52%, but loses the electoral college by losing Ohio.
    I hope I’m wrong, but Romney needs to sweep nearly all the swing states for 270 to stop the Obama nightmare.

    God help us all … Should have went with Gingrich.

  3. While it’s true (and great) that Romney has been trending upwards with independents for a number of weeks, it has always seemed to me the the much-courted “independent vote” is somewhat overrated, despite politicians tripping over themselves as they cater to it. If Obama loses, it won’t be just due to the fact his disastrous policies have persuaded “independents” (the same ones who voted for him in 2008) to reverse their support, but to the voter turnout by ordinary Americans of all stripes who are fed up watching the country go to hell under the failing socialism that is shoved down their throats by an arrogant and callous few. Out here in flyover country, tea partiers and other activists have quietly re-channeled their energy in making real changes in public offices, from the most mundane local level to the national one, from school boards to US senate races; we’re loaded and ready. If the sweaty work pays off and we have a massive turnout, we can begin to rid ourselves of this menace that has plagued us, not for 4 years, but for 4 decades. It’s called pushback. Just you watch.

    Or better, join.

  4. Gigi,

    The independents make up about 30% of the electorate. You need to carry them to win. That said, I’ve always believed that independents are not attracted to moderates. They are attracted to movements. That’s why they went for O. That’s why they’ll go against O this time. The anti-Obama movement is the only game in town.

  5. Gigi, I’m not worried about “flyover country” as you put it. And know that county by county almost the entire U.S. map will be red. However, we don’t elect based on geography or even popular vote. All that matters are electoral votes. And I’m starting to worry (hope I’m wrong). Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin I believe might go for Obama – and if so, he’ll win and we’ll be doomed.

  6. Henry, not necessarially.
    If Obama wins Florida by 1 vote, he gets all of their electoral votes and could lose Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas except by 500,000 votes in each state etc. Romney could theoretically get 60 % of the national vote and still lose the electoral college.In States Romney wins he crushes Obama, but Obama just has to squeak by in those states he wins.

    Only about 10 states decide the entire election at this point (FL, NC, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV, NM, VA). And Romney needs to win about 8 of those for 270 as he only starts out with about 180 … Obama only needs to win about 3 because he starts out with a much higher total of electoral votes like 230.

  7. You are technically correct but as a practical matter such a substantial popular vote win would almost guarantee an electoral college win. The last time there was a split between the popular vote winner and electoral college winner (2000) the popular vote margin was less than 1%. If Romney gets 52% as you suggest he’s going to easily achieve 270 electoral votes.

  8. It would be awesome if, in this election, we could see the voters focus on the urgency of the issues instead of the cult of personality and party labels. IMHO, too many ppl have forgotten to be Americans, what with all the bombardment of class/gender/ethnicity/religion/color divisons we’re subjected to; but the reality check is that the labels are not going away any time soon, so we have to continue to push back and, in the process, re-educate our friends/families on the principles that drive the issues. I’m no expert on independents and have never researched the topic; the ones I know are generally people who are fiscally conservative and who don’t like to “take sides”; a few are smug about the fact they won’t attach to a party label ~ and that’s fine by me, it’s their right to do that. But if they’re really 30% of the electorate, and if liberals are not a majority, that leaves a lot of voters out there who can make a difference. Democrats and blacks have been negatively affected by obama’s policies, just like the rest of us; it’s hard to believe that every single one of them – monolithically – will abandon their brains at the voting booth.

    Guess I’m just quite sick of polls-and-labels spin, and more desirous of issue-oriented debate. But won’t hold my breath on that one any time soon.

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