May 02, 2006

Prophetic Words...

I am currently reading Castro’s Final Hour, a book by Andres Oppenheimer in which the author prematurely predicts the collapse of Castro regime in Cuba. The book was first published in 1992, but the edition I have is a subsequent printing from 1993. The book, for me, sheds a new light on the General Arnaldo Ochoa affair, but the thing that amazed me the most is a line in the epilogue in which Oppenheimer states:

At the time of this writing, the Clinton administration had its hands full trying to pass its domestic economic package through congress and had not given serious thought to Cuba. Short of striking a massive oil deposit, Castro could not count on any quick way out of his predicament.

Quick is a relative term. For Castro the five years of increasing hardship that Cubans faced between the time when Oppenheimer committed those words to paper and the election in 1998 of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela went by in the blink of an eye. After all he wasn’t the one that was suffering. But find his massive oil deposit, he did.

Posted by Henry Louis Gomez at May 2, 2006 09:42 PM

Comments

I love that book. It was one of the first books I read on the subject of Cuba right after college. The situation then was shocking, and it only got worse over the years.

My copy is dog-eared, and highlighted/underlined to death.

Posted by: Kallistos [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 2, 2006 11:53 PM

What will happen to Cuba and its people when the old fart finaly does kick off?

Does he have an heir apparent?

Will their be some military figure that will try to seize power?

Posted by: Ed Morrow [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 3, 2006 08:29 AM

Sir you have asked the $64,000 question. Raul, fidel's brother is supposed to assume the leadership. But there's a lot of reform minded people in the Cuban Gov. that feel they can't attempt to change things as long as fidel is alive. I think the minute castro's body drops there will be a period confusion and a lot of kockeying for position. There will be a some sort of transitional government where political prisoners will begin to be freed, there will be some violence and then things will settle down as Cuba begins to change. The thing is that Cubans have been taught to fear Cuban exiles and they are also fearful of losing their social safety net. Even if there isn't much left of one.

Posted by: conductor [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 3, 2006 08:47 AM

One probable outcome is rage, a rage that will outdo that at the fall of Machado.......

Posted by: Larry Daley [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 3, 2006 11:01 AM


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