Babalu Blog: And so it begins...

June 10, 2006

And so it begins...

Tropical Depression One Special Advisory Number 1

ISSUED AT: 8:12 AM CDT 6/10/06 (GATEWAY).
FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA,

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM CDT, 1300Z, THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES, 80 KM, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH, 19 KM/HR, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH, 55 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB, 29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION, 21.1 N, 85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

Posted by George Moneo at June 10, 2006 09:30 AM

Comments

Cripes it's early. Shouldn't this crap be starting in August? Nature just doesn't give a break. The only tolerable outcome would be if one of these damn things gives the Zarqawi treatment to castro ensconced in his palace.

Posted by: A.M. Mora y Leon at June 10, 2006 06:46 PM

It's about time!

After 5 full months without a storm to entertain us, we finally have something to watch in the tropics!

;)

Posted by: Robert at June 10, 2006 07:52 PM

Robert, for you, Hurricane Season means two words: JOB SECURITY. ;-)

Posted by: George L. Moneo at June 10, 2006 09:32 PM

It is only a very poorly organized depression, with very little circulation.
It is not early. We ahd a tropical storm hit Houston in 2001 at this time that flooded 40,000 people.
Don't you guys need a bit of rain? This is only a depression, and will llikely be only a depression or very very weak tropical storm when it gets to you Tuesday or so.
Relax, take it easy. It will be OK.

Posted by: hunter at June 10, 2006 10:39 PM

Miami might be fine but this will probably be enough to cause trouble in Cuba. castro has neglected the place badly.

Posted by: A.M. Mora y Leon at June 10, 2006 10:54 PM

I want it understood that I offered to help George move his household belongings to a POD today, in the rain, so he could be ready to have tile installed in his house. I offered, dammit.

Of course, I'm glad he didn't take me up on it. I mean, come on.

Posted by: Steve H. at June 11, 2006 03:38 PM