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I'd normally choose the last one, but I fear that would put me in the camp of voting for Jimmy Carter - I had eight opportunities to vote against him and I've taken advantage of each.

Sadly, my crytal ball tells me that Chavez will win by at least 10 - 15 percentage points. Why?

First, because people don't learn from others' mistakes. So, the (very valid) argument that Chavez is leading Venezuela down a path of "cubanization" does not go very far. And, things in Venezuela are not (yet?) as bad as they are in Cuba (ie. hundreds of thousands walk the streets in open opposition to Chavez, etc.).

Secondly, the "Chavez voter" constitutes the majority of the population--read poor, or disavantaged or whatever word you best like. So, because of the reasons in the preceeding paragraph, these people have no reason NOT to vote for Chavez, and they will.

I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I am not.

I think Manuel Rosales is going to win and I hope that there is no violence involved.
But then I see what is going on in Mexico that the liberal left doesn't want to face the fact that they lost and that the deputees were beating each other up, and that upsets my hopes.

And then I see this:
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/4278/2924/1600/997292/34neeee.jpg

where Chavez calls for setting up "pelotones y batallones populares de contingencia" on every corner, which equates to the opressive Brigadas de Respuesta Rapida in Cuba.

Chavez tells his followers to blockade all Vemezuela if he finds it necessary.

And to top it all off, Chaves threatens to take away the private property and business of all of those who he claims are "conspiring."

This doesn't sound peaceful and it sounds like Chavez will refuse to step down.

Moreover the FBI was investigating the company that supplies the machines for the Venezuelan elections and they found that the company had been evading taxes so the FBI had to place a fine on them. (sounds fishy as well)

So I trully hope that the Venezuelan people go out to vote for Rosales to ensure that teir country becomes a true democracy again.

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