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Could be...but whatever the reason, I can't think of a scenario where they would announce fifo's death...in a previous post the cuban gov'ts credibility was mentioned as a reason...credibility? we all know they lost credibility 49 years ago...I'm afraid that they will just continue over the next year or two saying nothing and then finally announce after fifo has become completely irrelevent due to time out of power...

I doubt it. The biggest boon for tourism to Cuba will be the death of fidel. Think of how many admirers and sycophants will go to "pay their respects" and see Cuba as it is "before it's gone".

Henry,

Short term, yes. For about a week or two. But what happens afterward? Suppose they arent capable right now of leadership coherence, with some factions, as we have heard reports on, vying against others? All the world's eyes on Cuba at that moment in time would surely be cause for concern in some circles.

I think both Val and Henry are right.

There will most likely be a surge tourism in the first few weeks after the announcement from the arrival of all the "fans" of fifo's reign of terror. But as Val said, that cannot last forever.

Perhaps they are busy preparing a new "Revolutionary Trail," like they do with che, where tourists can visit museums and sights throughout the island that tell the story of fifo's rise to power (remember their recent push for donations of jewelry to make a statue of fidel). That will bring to the island a lot of useful idiots with hard currency.

They market the hell out of the che trail, why wouldn't they do it with the granddaddy of all the butchers, fidel?

I still think, however, that raul is not comfortable with his grip on power and won't make an announcement until he knows he can keep things under control.

They are probably trying to settle who gets what. Who will leave, where they'll go, who will stay, who gets protection, yada, yada, yada.
Se estan repartiendo la piñata.
The end is not near, it is here!

How about this thought...the reason for the delay in announcing fifo's death is the US itself...the US is mired in the Iraq war and in Iran's nuclear ambitions...they don't care about Cuba...the Cuban gov't, in order to stay in power, would preferably make the announcement only when they can convince people that things will change...nothing would provide more hope to the masses than the US agreeing to an opening of relations with Cuba...the problem, the US won't do it until they are convinced of a real commitment to change.

Long Island,

its a nice thought, but it aint gonna happen. All cuba has to do is release its political prisoners to get the US's attention. But they arent about todo that anytime soon.

There is a good article by Carlos Alberto Montaner regarding about the day castro dies, the most critical issue that the Cuban goverment most deal with once the SOB dies is to secure the internatonal credits pending and to secure the "logros materiales" of the nomenklatura in the financial heavens in Europe and the caribean.

International credits? Do they enven have c"credits?" Seems to me that a country 27 billionin the whole would be a bad credit risk, no?

Yes they have credits, there are suckers everywhere.

Did you know there are cuban bonds sold in the UK!

Brazil, is extending its credit line after the visit of the Socotroco Perez Roque.

tango

I think there is also the fact that Cuba (castro specifically) has assets in many of the same places they have creditors--like, oh, say......Spain? Remember, I believe it was the Spanish foreign minister who visited Cuba not long ago, and did not get to see fidel.

When "L'etat cest moi" or rather "L'etat cest fidel" it makes a good case in many of these nations to use probate courts to seize the Cuban assets in their nation upon fidel's death to pay fidel's debts to that nation.

As long as a case can be made that fidel is alive, even if on life support, the probate courts have to back off. As long as the assets are not seized, raul can try to find a way to get ahold of them.

Does anyone remember that during that last spell of rumors, the U.S. Government was going to make the annoucement? I don't know why that was, but, let's speculate a bit. I believe that the remaining Cuban oligarchy has been negotiating with the U.S. government and it was the U.S. that, once realizing, that they couldn't control the Miami situation, turned it back to the Cuban oligarchy. They can not afford to announce due to internal in-fighting and fear of internal upheaval. They want to U.S. to control the internal strife that will ensue. I truly believe that not only is Fifo long dead, but that the heir apparent is also on the sick list or dead and the U.S. government is aware of this. I was talking last week to a few foreign military officers and tried to explain (successfully) why the collapse of the Cuban system will affect their countries as far as removing the "example" used by the left-wing parties and groups there of Cuba, leaving this groups without a leg to stand on and what could happen. All of these officers were concerned with any violence that could occur in their countries.

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