September 06, 2007

Raul Reappears - Sort of

It's been six weeks already since de-facto Cuban "President" Raul Castro took to a podium in the city of Camaguey during celebrations "honoring" the 54th anniversary of the Moncada Barracks attack that served as the flash point for the now half-century-long Cuban nightmare. Since then, nary a public word has been uttered by the interim Cuban "leader." Add to that the fact that no photographs or video segments have appeared on either Cuban state television or in the international media since that afternoon and a puzzling picture begins to materialize. Earlier in the year, the question was "Where's Fidel?" Today, the question is: "Where's Raul?"

Just two days ago, the international media received an answer which was dubious at best. North Korea's official state media outlet, KCNA ,released a "Greeting from Raul Castro" which read like a weak attempt to assure the world that Fidel Castro's younger brother was alive and well.

Pyongyang, September 4 (KCNA) -- General Secretary Kim Jong Il and Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People's Assembly, received a message of greetings from Raul Castro Ruz, second secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba, first vice-president of the Council of State and first vice-president of the Council of Ministers of Cuba, on Monday on the occasion of the 59th founding anniversary of the DPRK.

The message sent them highest regards, reiterating the firm will to make sustained efforts to boost the friendly and cooperative relations between the parties, governments and peoples of the DPRK and Cuba.

Interestingly, the release of Raul's greetings and salutations to North Korean government officials came just a day before a flurry of attempts by the Cuban regime to allay fears - make that hopes - that Fidel Castro was already on ice. In a bumbling attempt to quell widespread rumors and information leaks from within the Cuban government hierarchy, Cuban officials told visiting U.S. lawmakers - including Representative William Delahunt - that Fidel Castro was not suffering from cancer. Who thought Fidel was suffering from cancer? Why is the Cuban government referring to a long dead and buried hypotheses from several months ago? For his part, Mr. Delahunt, who had sought to ally himself with the exile community by championing an ease in family visit restrictions, bought the official statement hook, line and sinker. "The Cubans were emphatic, and I believe them, that Fidel does not have cancer, and that the illness he does have is not terminal."

Then came a cascade of articles seemingly dictated by Cuba's state propaganda apparatus and disseminated by international news wires that most Cubans believe Castro to be alive. As I had stated in a previous posting on Babalu - nothing could be further from the truth. But I digress . . .

I have no crystal ball with which to peer inside Cuban government buildings and the mansions of the island's government fat-cats. I am however, armed with logic. Most dictatorships work along the same line. If the "exalted" leader falls ill but remains alive - any government worth its salt would work hard to ensure that the population understands that all is well. The regular dissemination of video clips or photographs becomes of paramount importance but Cuba, for whatever the reason, doesn't seem to be following this recipe. If the regime entrenched in Havana has given up on Fidel - fine. But then why the silence with regards to Raul, and why the release of a preposterous canned statement to Pyongyang that bears no importance whatsoever to the Cuban people? Something smells rotten down south and it isn't just Fidel's corpse.

Posted by at September 6, 2007 11:42 AM



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Comments

What if Fidel and Raul are both dead? Who's in charge? Is it Lage, Alarcon or some general?

How long can Cuba run on auto-pilot?

A quiet fading away of Fidel is the best case scenario for Raul. But, if Raul is dead or dying or too drunk to function then someone has to step up.

Posted by: havanajournal [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 12:25 PM

I would imagine it would be either Lage or Alarcon but in Cuba - anything goes.

As I had stated in my previous post - during my recent trip to the island, I did - on more than one occasion - here the hypotheses that perhaps Raul had "left the building" as well. With one individual even wondering if he had been knocked off following Fidel's death - a-la a serious power struggle.

That said, I don't believe Raul was assassinated. My gut just doesn't buy it. That said, something strange is going on and no one in the MSM seems to be asking the question: "Where's Raul." That has become the job of the Cuban community.

Posted by: CubaWatch [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 12:27 PM

CubaWatch,

Isn't raul's absence from the public eye simply his "standard procedure." He has never been one to relish the public eye. His public speeches and appearances have always been few and far between.

Also, with fidel as the still undead figure head, raul can run the show from the shadows, with no need to appear in public. Unless you know something more than what you are able to publish here, I don't think raul's sparse public sightings are at all "suspicious."

Posted by: LittleGator [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 12:39 PM

LittleGator,

Indeed it is true that Raul's style is much more nuanced, and that he doesn't savor the limelight in the same way his brother once did. That said, now that Fidel is dead and all of Cuba is abuzz with rumors, speculation and general anxiousness, his appearance would seem absolutely necessary to maintain the status-quo. Not one image, not one piece of video - nothing.

I would remind you that during the first six months of his interim rule, Raul often appeared at public events - usually dressed in a simple sports jacket. The recent Havana book fair comes to mind. People all the capitol province are wondering why on Earth he hasn't emerged and for that reason alone, it would seem appropriate for him to prove his presence given the nature of the current situation in Cuba.

Posted by: CubaWatch [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 12:43 PM

Maybe Fidel died on Friday August 17 and Raul died on Friday August 24 and no one has the authority (or balls) to make either announcement.

If Fidel's death is announced, there would be immediate pressure on Raul to come out and take charge. But, what if Raul is not around?

Anyway, great question. Where is Raul?

Posted by: havanajournal [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 12:50 PM

Guys,

There's no need to speculate. I year ago I revealed who's really running Cuba.

:-)

Posted by: jluix [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 01:10 PM

Forget the details. This whole affair, from beginning to end, is a complete and utter farce. It would actually be comical if it weren't so dead serious. Just step back some and look at the situation. Is this a colossal bad joke or what? The players in it don't have, can't have, one iota of dignity or self-respect in the true sense. Thy're all a bunch of buffoons, albeit perverse and malignant ones. How can anyone take this abysmally bad theater seriously?

Posted by: asombra [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 01:31 PM

asombra:

Well put - the word "circus" comes to mind.

Cheers,

-AB

Posted by: CubaWatch [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 01:35 PM

I just found this so let's see if this PM actually meets with Raul.

Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago Will Begin Official Visit to Cuba

Havana, September 6 (RHC)-The Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, Patrick Manning, will arrive on Thursday to Havana on an official visit to the island.

During his stay which will run until Saturday, the distinguished visitor will hold official talks with First Vice President Raul Castro and will inaugurate Trinidad and Tobago's Commercial Office in Havana, among other activities.

Posted by: havanajournal [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 01:57 PM

The DPRK sending greetings to Cuba is like an old Kaiser Manhattan waving at an Edsel as they pass each other on the way to the bone yard.


-S-

Posted by: Dr.Shalit [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 02:40 PM

At Raul's advanced age, he's got to be wondering about who will succeed him. I imagine he also wonders about whether that person will ensure the safety of Raul's children and grandchildren. I imagine that secured golf course community must be pretty alluring to Raul in his old age.

Posted by: Frankestein En La Playa [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 03:12 PM

Ahh yes, that reminds me - I have an interesting story regarding FC's children - well - not so much an entire story but an interesting tidbit - it'll most likely appear tomorrow.

Posted by: CubaWatch [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 03:14 PM

I meant to say, "that secured Italian golf course community must be pretty alluring to Raul in his old age."

Posted by: Frankestein En La Playa [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 03:17 PM

Who knows and WHO CARES?

I just want BOTH of them gone to the eternal crackling sauna.

Posted by: Gigi [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 10:30 PM

I didn't see or hear if Raul met with the visiting Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago. It appears from Granma that he did not. If so, where is Raul?

Posted by: LongIslandCubano [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 7, 2007 03:14 PM

LongIslandCubano,

I myself am also waiting to see what appears in the media. I am doubtful anything will. Most likely, the PM will meet with some either high-level functionary the likes of Perez-Roque or Alarcon.

Posted by: CubaWatch [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 7, 2007 03:18 PM

From Granma - Raul did meet with the officials.

GRANMA
September 8, 2007

Raul Castro Meets Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister

Raul Castro, First Vice President of the Council of State and Council of
Ministers, met Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, Patrick Manning, who
is in Cuba on an official visit.

After the solemn welcome ceremony which took place at the Palacio de la
Revolucion, Raul and Manning held official talks on different topics related
to the development of bilateral relations and to important issues on the
national and international agenda.

Also present at the meeting were Carlos Lage Davila, Secretary of the
Executive Committee of the Council of State; Felipe Perez Roque, Minister of
Foreign Affairs, and Sergio Oliva, Cuban Ambassador to Trinidad and Tobago.

Posted by: havanajournal [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 8, 2007 06:35 PM

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