I'd like to like Mike

The results last night felt like a cold shower on a cold Miami morning to Thompson supporters. Why? Because Huckabee's 32% could have easily been Thompson's. Thompson, who is probably the most consistent, well-rounded conservative, lost much of his own base to Huckabee. I'm not referring to the evangelicals, but to the staunch conservatives in Iowa.

It seems all but over for Thompson unless he can pull a huge rabbit out of his hat in the next few weeks. Too bad, because he had serious momentum last summer. His campaign must be wondering where they lost the momentum. I for one see a serious lack of fire and conviction in Thompson. He may feel it inside, but the feeling is not getting through in a field of competent candidates. Huckabee, with much less ballyhoo and hype, has been able to pull it off because he comes across as both impassioned and real. Hats off to him, although I'm still pulling for Fred.

Those were Babalu contributor Robert's comments on my post about the Iowa Caucuses. He makes a great point about how Huckabee swooped in and snatched the votes that perhaps rightfully should have been Thompson's. And here's the thing, on the surface Mike Huckabee is what I as a conservative would look for in a president. He has experience as an executive, rather than a legislator. He is running on a platform of eliminating the IRS and implementing the "Fair Tax" which has a lot of advantages, not the least of which is that it incentivizes saving and investment. He's obviously articulate and charisimatic.

But there's something about Huckabee that doesn't seem genuine. First of all he's being hailed by the media as this evangelical. But as Robert Novak pointed out, the reality is that Huckabee was on the side of Baptist liberals during a rift in the Southern Baptist Convention. The really religious right isn't going to buy Huckabee. In fact, among the entrance polls I saw yesterday they said that Huckabee achieved 49% of the self-described evangelicals. While that's a considerable number, larger than any of the other candidates it tells you that either religion is not that big a factor among half of the evangelicals, or that they aren't buying Huck as any more of an evangelical than his competitors.

Then there's the record in Arkansas. Huckabee's record is not that of a fiscal conservative. Novak points out that there has been extensive "criticism by the Club for Growth, the Cato Institute and the Arkansas Eagle Forum of Huckabee's 10 big-government, high-tax years as governor."

And then we get to Cuba. Huckabee signed a letter to president Bush asking for the embargo to be removed. He did so at the urging of Arkansas rice farmers. Now that he's running for president, he says he's for the embargo and that he was only looking out for his constituents. Which is a nice way of saying that he put the interests of the few over the interests of the country. He claims he now knows more about Cuba and is a better position to judge the situation. This is admirable. One of the things we try to do here is convince people that are perhaps uninformed about Cuba. But it tells me a lot that as Governor that he would advocate against a policy without being fully informed.

So here we have an evangelical that perhaps isn't. A fiscal conservative that perhaps isn't. And a friend to the cause of Cuban liberty that perhaps isn't.

All of this then begs the questions: who the hell is Mike Huckabee and what will he really do as president?

I've always believed in the axiom that the best indicator of future performance is past performance. That's why I've like Fred Thompson from the beginning. His voting record matches his conservative rhetoric. He's plain spoken but articulate. He doesn't wear religion on his sleeve. He's a known commodity.

I too lament the fact that Fred didn't have a better showing in Iowa. It may be the one state that Huckabee wins and it may be the one that killed Fred's chances. I'm hearing that the Thompson campaign is low on funds and may not survive for much longer. I think Republicans better start paying attention because if Thompson drops out, picking from the remainder of the field will become an exercise is choosing the lesser of four evils.

Posted by Henry Louis Gomez at January 4, 2008 11:00 AM

Comments

Posted by: Dino P Crocetti at January 4, 2008 11:07 AM

Posted by: Val Prieto at January 4, 2008 11:23 AM

Posted by: Robert at January 4, 2008 11:45 AM

Posted by: El Loco de Hialeah at January 5, 2008 12:26 AM

Posted by: Henry "Conductor" Gomez at January 5, 2008 12:34 AM