January 04, 2008

Iowa, a victory for Fred

At least one blogger seems to think so. He's an admitted Fredhead but his reasoning is interesting:

First, 2008 promises to be the election that tests the Republican coalition, comprised primarily of Social Conservatives (SoCons), Fiscal Conservatives (FisCons), and War Conservatives (DefCons). Yes, there’s a strong libertarian contingent, but I get the sense that they aren’t one of the pillars of the party, but more of a theme that infuses all pillars (except SoCons to some extent).

Second, none of the top tier candidates appeal to all three pillars. Indeed, most of them are unacceptable to one or more of the pillars.

Huckabee is unacceptable to the FisCons and DefCons. Romney is apparently unpalatable to a large block of SoCons. Rudy is unacceptable to most SoCons, and a few FisCons. McCain is unacceptable to allCons. Paul is unacceptable to saneCons.

And every conservative has Fred Thompson as their first or second choice. He is the compromise candidate. If conventions still meant something, he would emerge as the nominee after backroom politicking by the party bosses.

Go read the whole thing.

Posted by Henry Louis Gomez at January 4, 2008 12:05 PM

Comments

Obama's trouncing of Hillary is the best thing that can happen to Republicans. It will continue to divide Democrats, especially African Americans who were formerly the base of support for the Clintons. Bill moved his office to Harlem years ago to court the wealthy African American movers and shakers, but they have been jumping ship at a fast rate and will now do so at a faster pace after Obama has energized new young voters and African Americans.
The Democratic Party machinery, controlled by the Clintons, will give the presidential nomination to Hillary. That will anger and dismay many African Americans who will then not show up to vote on election day. This is what happened when Jesse Jackson made his presidential bid in 1984 and 1988. He energized young African Americans during the primaries but when he fell out of the race so did most of his supporters, who went missing on election day. Republicans won both times.
Obama is a lot stronger candidate than Jackson ever was. His failure to grasp the nomination will have dire consequences for the Democrats. Obama's victory speech was mostly rhetoric similar to that of John Kennedy in 1960. The Democrats will squander millions of dollars in campaign money fighting each other that will not be available against Republicans.
If the Republicans get their act together, they will be able to squeak by with a victory due to Democrat divisiveness. The nation generally votes for a change after a party has been in office for eight years.

Posted by: Tio [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 4, 2008 01:10 PM

I think he won as well. I linked to you from my post discussing the results, but a haloscan trackback failed.

Posted by: K T Cat [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 4, 2008 03:02 PM

Cousin I'm not Rudy fan but I think they ought to count his votes. I'm getting some fishy reports from Iowa which I placed in my latest post. See if you can dig up anything...

Posted by: Tomas Estrada-Palma [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 4, 2008 04:30 PM


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