Babalu Blog: Romney's must win states

February 04, 2008

Romney's must win states

If Romney is to "live to fight another day" as described in the National Review article I quoted below, he's going to need to win most of the following states tomorrow:

Alaska (Romney actually campaigned there)
California (Polls have Romney surging, especially in the conservative Orange County and San Diego)
Colorado Caucus (Romney leading in the polls by a substantial margin)
Georgia (Romney is neck and neck with McCain in the latest polls, Huckabee trailing both by about 5%)
Massachusetts (Romney's home turf is lock)
Missouri (This one is close with all 3 candidates within 5 points of each other, a Romney win in Missouri would be huge as this an important swing state)
Montana (Closed caucus. McCain had a campaign chair that ran for Lt. Governor on the ticket with a Democrat, sound familiar? Romney should win here).
North Dakota Caucus (no clue, but it seems Romney is doing well out in the plains)
Tennessee (Rasmussen has this one as a 3-way toss up, other polls have McCain ahead)
Utah (Lots of Mormons to vote for Romney)
West Virginia (Not known, Romney will be there tomorrow for their convention)

Jim Geraghty of National Review is predicting that coming out of tomorrow the delegate count will be as follows:

McCain at 600+ total delegates (needing 1,191)

Romney a bit under 400 total delegates

Huckabee at 150 delegates or so

Geraghty says, "Under this scenario, the race won't be over, but McCain will have a clear lead, and time will be running low for Romney to close the gap."

I disagree. If Romney finishes tomorrow night at about 400 delegates with McCain at about 600 and Huckabee at 150 then Huckabee will be out. He has no cash and no real chance, his role as spoiler will be done and the line will be drawn in the sand between the McCain and anti-McCain factions of the party. Romney can roll on to compete head to head in the remaining primaries.

Posted by Henry Louis Gomez at February 4, 2008 08:49 PM

Comments

Just to clarify, Nebraska doesn't vote tomorrow. The Republican primary in Nebraska is May 13

Posted by: nebraska_girl at February 4, 2008 10:23 PM

Thanks for the correction. Duly noted and fixed.

Posted by: Henry "Conductor" Gomez at February 4, 2008 10:47 PM

Romni is looking better to me.

Posted by: Peter Perez at February 4, 2008 11:11 PM

...I live in orange county, california...the only surge here has been for McCain and Paul.

Posted by: verb0s at February 5, 2008 02:17 AM

verb0s, which polls are you referring to? We'll see tonight who's right, you or me.

Posted by: Henry "Conductor" Gomez at February 5, 2008 09:17 AM

we'll find out wont we =)

http://www.ocvote.com/live/pri0208/results.htm

Posted by: verb0s at February 5, 2008 01:21 PM

I'm way ahead of you. I bookmarked that this morning.

Posted by: Henry "Conductor" Gomez at February 5, 2008 01:40 PM

McCain won the OC

Posted by: verb0s at February 5, 2008 11:08 PM

you're right i'll go sleep now that 0% of the precincts are reporting.

Posted by: Henry "Conductor" Gomez at February 5, 2008 11:19 PM

Well Romney didn't win Orange County but came within 3% of McCain in a state where McCain beat Romney by 8. And Ron Paul's surge? He got 4.5% in a state where he got 4%.

Posted by: Henry "Conductor" Gomez at February 6, 2008 09:48 AM

...ya i don't know what happened with paul...I'm thinking voter fraud in OC ...According to my precinct paul got 3 votes...but that's a bunch of bull because I know for a Fact about 5(votes for Paul) just in my neighborhood.

Posted by: verb0s at February 6, 2008 07:25 PM

not including my vote

Posted by: verb0s at February 6, 2008 07:25 PM

Look out for those black helicopters. They are nasty.

Posted by: Henry "Conductor" Gomez at February 6, 2008 11:05 PM