You're right to a degree. I've voted for Ros-Lehtinen for the last 12 years, and will vote without hesitation or guilty conscience for her in November, yet I voted for Senator Kerry and Gore. Don't ask me about my choice for prez in November yet, though.

As I mentioned in a comment to the first post last night, the big margin among Cuban voters is likely too much for the Ds to overcome. Sure, they can hope for a massive turnout by non-Cubans and especially non-Hispanics. That's their only hope, and one that been proven in the past to be wishful thinking. Sure, with the presidential election there will be a large overall turnout, but Cubans historically go to the polls in larger numbers/percentages than "Anglos" or "African-Americans" in Miami-Dade County.

Duke,

I'll accept your anecdote for what it is, an anecdote but we already know from your blog and your past comments that you aren't exactly the typical Cuban-American voter in South Florida. That's why I'm sticking with the data though I do make some inferences from it. But those inferences are based on past events not speculation.

Robert,

Benidixen believes that the large turnout will benefit the Democrat challengers because large turnouts historically favor democrats who have constituencies that don't vote frequently and are only energized for the big elections. With a black on the ballot you can bet African American turnout is going to be very, very high. Cubans do vote regularly in large numbers there's no doubt about that. The question is who will the whites turn out for?

Folks, call me intransigent and reactionary if you will, but I can't for my life understand why any Cuban American, or Cuban exile would vote for a Democrat. But I know a few in NYC and in Miami that will do so. Am I being closed minded here. I know the GOP has some work to do, and I also know that there is a growing segment in the Republican party that wants to do business with Cuba, but voting Dem, or even considering to vote for Garcia or Obama is the modern day equivalent of a Jew supporting the Nazi party as he was about to be taken to Auschwitz! It just turns my stomach.

To me the Democratic party is the party of failure, hand outs, pessimism, defeat, central planning, anti 2nd amendment, appeasement, collectivism, promiscuity, abortion, low standards, decline in moral values, entitlement, surrender, not to mention the party that has done the most bowing to Fidel and co. and an organization that can be very well be called "communism light".

You have heard the story from me in the past, about the recently escaped Cuban who saw the last Democratic party convention on TV...hearing the speeches, and the Democratic type rhetoric, he turns to his wife and says, "Ah, now I see, the Democrats sound like the communist party members back home!"

Nuff, said.

Mandingo: you can't seriously mean that a vote for a Democrat is analogous to a vote for Hitler. Apart from the tiredness of the analogy – do we know nothing of history that we need to compare every personality we don't like to Hitler? – you're implying that Obama will, before invading Canada or Mexico, create laws restricting the movement of Cuban-American citizens, with the intention of sending them to a camp in Mexico for an ignoble execution. If you didn't mean this, then your analogy is not just useless, but presages a moral holocaust.

Until Clinton's bungled wet-foot/dry-foot policy, Democrats and Republicans were indistinguishable on Cuba. Carter made his usual bleatings about wanting to repair relations, but nothing happened.

Finally, speaking for myself: I'm an American citizen. I don't vote on Cuban issues. My parents are American citizens of Cuban descent. They vote for candidates who want to help them and their fellow Americans (overwhelmingly GOP candidates in their case). They don't care about the purring noises Obama and McCain make whenever they preen before Radio Mambi audiences. They know the candidates are playing a game, that Obama and McCain are quietly waiting for our abuelos' generation to die; when this crucial voting block is gone before the "normalization" of relations begins.

What angers me is how quickly the same generation falls for the same nonsense every election cycle. Abandoned during Bay of Pigs, exploited during Watergate and Iran-Contra, they don't seem to get that Washington doesn't possess their moral urgency. This is what depresses my parents and their generation, and I completely understand.

I still believe in the ideals enshrined in our Constitution and Bill of Rights, but I can't fathom why we as men and women of Cuban descent trust anything our government tells us about Cuba. We're a voting bloc, nothing more.

(Let's have a civil debate here. I haven't insulted anyone.)

What angers me is how quickly the same generation falls for the same nonsense every election cycle. Abandoned during Bay of Pigs, exploited during Watergate and Iran-Contra, they don't seem to get that Washington doesn't possess their moral urgency. This is what depresses my parents and their generation, and I completely understand.

The same anger you express could be applied to the majority of Cuban exiles and Cuban-Americans who have been betrayed by the Democratic Party throught the years. Bay of Pigs, Mariel, Brothers to the Rescue, Elian, etc. Knowing this, is it any wonder why most Cubans are tradionally pro-Republican? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out, nor does it give liberals the intellectual right to criticize these folks for the stances they take.

Mandingo is right inasmuch as it's been the Democrat party that has repeatedly screwed policy toward Cuba up. I don't want to get into a long protracted comment here but your assertion that the Democrats and Republicans have been identical on Cuba for the most part is wrong. The Dem presidents have paid lip service to the embargo while at the same time they allow it to be undermined. The Dem presidents have made some catastrophic decisions with regards to Cuba. And nobody talks about this but the greatest opportunity for Cuban freedom occurred between 1991 and 1998, peaking in 1994. And what did Bill Clinton do? Nothing.

Faced with a similar circumstance today Bush has shown that his response would be different. He talks about the political prisoners, he puts Gutierrez out there to talk to the media about dissidents. He's putting pressure on.

Well, for my 2 cents, I really go against the supposed "trend" as well. I am a gay, white, 48 year-old, Cuban-American (born in Cuba) that has been a life-long Democrat, but voted for Bush these last 2 elections. I finally changed parties in the last month from Democratic to Republican.

But to be honest, I will often vote for a Dem in local and state elections. I certainly don't like the tone of Republicans at the local level - I am by no means a social conservative (nor a "liberal" for that matter). And I am more inclined to vote for social welfare projects at the local and state level than at the federal level. All that said, I cannot stomach the Democrats on a foreign policy basis, which is to me the most important issue facing this country and always will be. I changed my party affiliation simply based on that.

Peace

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