Babalu Blog: And So the Race Begins

September 05, 2008

And So the Race Begins

Folks, the race is on. And in my humble opinion, it’s Obama’s race to lose and McCain’s race to win. If you look at the electoral map, which is what really counts here, where you need 270 votes to win, Obama leads 238 to 212. There are 88 toss up votes.

Obama has the clear lead because he has the states of California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Jersey, Minnesota, Wisconsin, most of the NE states except New Hampshire and Oregon and Washington State.

McCain has most of the South including Florida and Texas, the Plains states and the West.

Toss up states are Virginia (13) , the North Carolina (15) , Nevada (5), New Mexico (5) , Colorado (9) , and the two big Prizes: Michigan (17) and Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4).

What does this mean? Well Obama would need 32 electoral votes to win and McCain 58.

New Mexico will likely go for Obama as will Colorado which is 14 votes. Nevada will go for McCain. North Carolina is leaning towards McCain and Virginia is in a dead heat.

So assuming NM, NH and Colorado go for Obama, he thus only needs 14 votes. If you give McCain Nevada, North Carolina, he’s now at 232 votes or 38 votes needed.

So what does this mean? It means that there states that the real battlegrounds will be in Virginia, Michigan, and Ohio.

Obama is leading in Michigan and McCain in Ohio and Virginia is dead even. If McCain ekes out Virginia, then he’s at 245 votes needing 25.

That leaves you with Michigan and Ohio. McCain will need both states to win. Obama, needs only to win one of them. Under this scenario, Obama wins since Michigan will likely go with Obama.

Now on the other hand, in the toss up states, if McCain can win Colorado’s 9 votes (Obama’s lead here is slim), thus giving him 254 Votes v. 247 votes for Obama, and Obama wins Michigan (which is the most likely scenario) giving him 264 votes, then there is only one deciding state – Ohio.

Assuming these trends to remain the same, for McCain to have a fighting chance, he must retain the South, and must win Colorado. The deciding state will be Ohio. Whoever wins Ohio wins the presidency unless the GOP blows it by losing Colorado and Virginia.

You can see it’s a real tight race and it’s no doubt Obama’s election to lose.

The beauty of our country is that if Obama can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit, he’s going to be out of there in 4 years, but it will be a painful 4 years unless of course he really is the anointed One who will bring peace and prosperity to all. We can only hope, but I'm not counting on it.

Posted by Cigar Mike at September 5, 2008 10:56 AM

Comments

I think that with some effort Palin can take Pennsylvania and Ohio for McCain.

Posted by: Lazaro at September 5, 2008 12:03 PM

I agree, PA seems more likely to go for McCain. But we all know how much polls are worth... remember, in 2004 they had Kerry winning right up until the minute he lost.

Posted by: ElenaM at September 5, 2008 12:37 PM

I know Obama polled poorly in PA compared to Hillary.
I hope that continues... that if many of those that voted for Hillary switch to vote for Sarah, she's in.

Posted by: marc in calgary at September 5, 2008 12:51 PM

I think some polls had Kerry winning even after he had lost...

Posted by: Lazaro at September 5, 2008 12:55 PM

Polls are no good until right before the election. That's because polls are used to influence, not measure, public opinion. Right before an election, pollster retool their polls to actually measure opinion, lest they be proven wrong.

Posted by: jluix at September 5, 2008 01:51 PM

Pennsylvania has not voted GOP since 1988 when Bush 41 beat Dukakis. It went for Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and Nixon in 1972. It went for Carter in 1976, Clinton in 1992, 1996, Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. Odds are Obama takes it.

Posted by: Cigar Mike Pancier at September 5, 2008 02:10 PM

PA is the 'checkmate' against OBAMA. McCain/Palin can take PA. Obama will go heavy inside heart of Philly, but the NE / S.Philly / and burbs will go McCain/Palin heavy. Clinton/Gore/Kerry could count on union vote - but McCain will take that away this time around, and Palin will 'wow' the burbs, and ensure his victory.

Posted by: LaConchita at September 5, 2008 04:45 PM

If McCain takes Pa, then I agree with you Conchita, it's lights out. Pa is 21 votes. Obama cannot win the election without Pa. If McCain wins Pa. and Colorado, then he doesn't even need Ohio to win, and even then, Ohio is leaning his way.

Pa would be a coup for McCain. The odds are against him now, but he's not out yet.

Posted by: Cigar Mike Pancier at September 5, 2008 04:53 PM

In otherwords...."estamos screwed!!"

Posted by: Guajiro_de_Broward at September 5, 2008 10:05 PM

Cigar Mike,

You need to start factoring the “Palin” factor into this equation as you’ll see very soon that John McCain stroke of genius VP pick to start turning the tide in his favor.

Posted by: FreedomForCuba at September 5, 2008 11:23 PM

September 05, 2008

And So the Race Begins

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