Searching for "The Shift" Part 5

This is the fifth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here. Part 3 is here. Part 4 is here.

Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it's 33013.

As you can see from the map above this zip code is basically the eastern side of Hialeah.

Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):

Total pop: 33,365 (100%)
Hispanic: 30,134 (90.3%)
Cuban: 24,388 (73.1%)
Median age: 41.2

So this an area that is almost 3/4 Cuban (at least in 2000).

There are 8 different precincts located in this zip code that reported results. For reference they are: 314 315 329 330 337 338 378 and 379.

A total of 9,406 votes for president were cast in these precincts.

John McCain received 6,441 of those votes or 68.5%

Barack Obama received 2,920 or 31.0%

Again we don't exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it's pretty clear that this area like the others we've looked at thus far with it's large Cuban population was firmly in McCain's camp.

This is the first zip that I analyze where McCain's percentage is lower than Cuban pop. That would suggest that the Cubans in this zip were (at least slightly) less likely to vote for McCain than in other zips. But again the census data is from 2000 and doesn't necessarily reflect voters but population instead.

The high cuban density zips I've analyzed thus far suggest that Obama probably topped out somewhere below 30% for Cubans.

Until next time, I'll be searching for the shift.

UPDATE: This post was edited to reflect the county's election results as of 11/14/08.

Posted by Henry Louis Gomez at November 11, 2008 10:26 PM