November 21, 2008

Searching for "The Shift" Part 7

This is the seventh in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here. Part 3 is here. Part 4 is here. Part 5 is here. Part 6 is here.

In Part 3, I analyzed the precincts that are located in the 33165 zip code. According to 2000 census estimates (the latest info I could get) the zip code is 61.3% Cuban. We discovered that in those 16 precincts John McCain obtained 68.6% of the vote.

Well I went back to the 2004 election results and found that in the same 16 precincts George W. Bush obtained 71.5% of the vote. That's a shift of 2.9%.

There are some pretty big caveats to this analysis however. First off some of the precinct boundaries have changed and even the locations of the precinct houses have changed. One precinct house was actually was moved to a neighboring zip code. However the precincts still generally represent the same areas. The next caveat is that absentee ballots were reported differently back then. They had something called absentee precincts. Nowadays all ballots are attributed to the voters precinct regardless of whether the voted absentee or on election day (or early voted).

Until next time, I'll be searching for the shift.

UPDATE: This post has been edited to reflect the county's revised election results as of 11/14/08.

Posted by Henry Louis Gomez at November 21, 2008 12:31 AM

Comments

Henry, as a favor, can you do the analysis for my zips? 33014 and 33016? Just curious.

Posted by: Cigar Mike Pancier [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 21, 2008 09:07 AM

Henry, it's beyond clear that the Herald is full of it on this business, as it is on the whole Cuban or Cuban-American thing in general. It's like an old, tired and very bad joke. I can't see any informed Cuban-American of any intelligence (let alone self-respect) giving the Herald the time of day. As far as I'm concerned, the Herald does not exist. It certainly does not signify.

Posted by: asombra [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 21, 2008 09:34 AM


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