Henry,

Nobody can ever answer that question, the most that they can say is that now the regime won't have an excuse to blame the US. Once that's established, they can't for their own lives, tell you how that will change the plight of the Cuban people.

Most of these people don't really care one way or another about change in Cuba. They just want to visit their relatives and friends more often, or just frolic in the forbidden Cuban sands and be able to tell their kids and grandkids that they knew Cuba before it was "spoiled" by capitalism. If more money ends up in castro's hands, so be it.

What I just wrote may sound harsh, but I prefer this answer to the fake concern many anti-embargo folks show towards the cause of Cuba's freedom. I can understand the strong desire to visit your relatives more often. I don't understand why the United States is mostly blamed for Cuba's condition.

Called to account? Are you kidding? Fat chance.

Do you see anyone being called to account for the incredible financial mess we're all in, for which there are perfectly identifiable responsible parties and enablers? Do you think they'll ever be called to account in any significant way? I seriously doubt it. If THOSE assholes can get off the hook, people who've been screwing Cuba right and left have NOTHING to worry about. And don't think they don't know it, because they sure as hell do.

I believe in God. They will be called to account.

Henry, I was obviously talking about justice in this world. Is anybody, in any way, calling ex-KGB colonel Putin (who didn't make colonel for nothing) to account for even one of the countless, unspeakable crimes committed by his old outfit? No. Is anybody (besides Cubans like us, who don't count) even slightly pressuring Argentina to admit and apologize for what "Che" really was and really did? No. Is anybody formally, officially saying Nicaragua's Ortega is a filthy sex offender and proven criminal and thief, like so many of his Sandinista cronies, and demanding any sort of justice? No. Is the supposedly uber-ethical Jimmy Carter, or anyone of his persuasion, admitting that Chavez has gone WAY over the line and calling for him to step down? No. And the sickening, revolting list goes on and on, ad nauseam. You get the idea.

Of course it isn't that easy but as the closest thing to embargo hater here I will give it a shot.

1. Castro Bros. blame the economic mess on the embargo - trust me the economy will still be a mess, better but a mess. They'll have to take some heat.

2. Obviously once it comes to tourists ever effort to segregate will be made but it will be harder to control. I don't believe in that BS of person to person contacts BUT people sympathetic to the dissidents will find it easier to provide support and get info.

3. It will be easier for opponents of the regime (as long as they're known as such) to enter, record and report on the problems in Cuba.

None of these overwhelmingly convincing obviously - frankly they hardly made a dent on me. My reasons are different.

1. The last thing we (by that I mean the US, not the exile community) is for the gov't to collapse overnight and create a failed state or anything approaching that. That would send everyone on a raft or innertube. Not good.

2. What we do want is a state that is free, democratic...and most importantly stable. Lifting the embargo HOPEFULLY begins that transition. You hope that the Cuban gov't sees the benefits of a market economy. You hope that the rising tide of development lifts the Cuban people to middle-class status. Somewhere along this process a political opening hopefully occurs as the population no longer worries about day-to-day needs and shifts to getting it's voice heard on political matters.

A whole bunch of hoping but that is the best there is. As you and everyone else has noted the embargo is a fig leaf - it really does nothing. Lifting it forces Cuba out of it's "poor little victim" status and exposes it as the dysfunctional dictatorship it is. The whole world is too focused on the big bad US to really notice. I don't believe that the embargo was a failure - it did its job, we won the Cold War. Now we need to beat Castro Inc.

Final note - yes they will buy guns, yes they will beef up CDRs and yes they will jail more people. but as they become more dependent on sucking on our teet they will find it harder (but hardly impossible) to tick off investors that they will have come to cherish.