Elusive Shift

This is the 12th in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.

In this part I wanted to examine how the three Cuban-American congressional incumbents from South Florida fared in comparison to John McCain. In order to do this I had to total presidential election results for the 587 different precincts that comprise the three districts in the county (because I’m interested in the Cuban-American vote I only looked at Miami-Dade County’s election results even though the three districts contain parts of other counties).

As you can see above John McCain actually lost the Miami-Dade portions of two of the congressional districts.

Of course we know that all three incumbents won but it’s telling that their personal popularity is significantly higher than McCain’s was. They not only achieved higher PERCENTAGES than McCain, they received more ACTUAL VOTES than McCain. That is to say that the three candidates did not win because of the substantial number of voters who came to the polls on election day only to vote for Obama.
There’s already been a flurry of news stories about polls indicating that a majority Cuban-Americans are against the U.S. embargo on Cuba. The above elections results show that such polls are B.S. The three congresspersons that were re-elected last month are the staunchest defenders of the embargo and also represent the greatest number of Cuban-Americans in the country. The people have spoken.

Another remarkable thing to note is the total rejection of Raul Martinez in the District 21 race. In 2006 an unknown Democrat named Frank J. Gonzalez ran against Lincoln Diaz-Balart and obtained 36.7% of the vote in Miami-Dade despite only raising $16,430. Martinez, the much ballyhooed former mayor of Hialeah, was only able to obtain 40.2% even after raising almost $1.9 million and that doesn’t even include the substantial money spent by the Democratic party on the race.

This is the eleventh in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.

The chart above shows the 2004 and 2008 election results in the 6 zip codes I’ve analyzed. These are 6 of the most Cuban zip codes in the county.
As you can see the net gain for the Democratic candidate was 4.4%. Hardly the monumental shift that the local and national media was projecting. In fact voters in these precincts preferred John McCain to Obama by a margin of more than 2-1. I have no doubt that even this minor shift was driven partly by younger Cubans who voted for Obama but it’s not clear whether their votes were driven by ideology (meaning that they identify themselves as liberal Democrats) or simply because of anti-Bush sentiment, the economy and the charisma of Obama.
Notes: The population statistics are from the 2000 census and are therefore outdated but are the best I could obtain.
Also note the vast differences in total votes from one election to the other. That’s because absentee ballots were handled differently in 2004. They were attributed to “absentee precincts” rather than the traditional precinct the voter belonged to. In 2008 all ballots are attributed to the voter’s precinct.

This is the tenth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
In Part 6, I analyzed the precincts that are located in the 33010 zip code. According to 2000 census estimates (the latest info I could get) the zip code is 66.1% Cuban. We discovered that in those 10 precincts John McCain obtained 63.2% of the vote.
Well I went back to the 2004 election results and found that in the 6 precincts (there was a new one in 2008 that didn’t exist in 2004) George W. Bush obtained 70.9% of the vote. That’s a shift of 7.7%. This is more of a shift than we’ve seen in the other zip codes thus far. Consider that the proportion of Cubans in each zip code could also be shifting.
There are some other pretty big caveats to this analysis. First off some of the precinct boundaries have changed and even the locations of the precinct houses have changed. However the precincts still generally represent the same areas. The next caveat is that absentee ballots were reported differently back then. They had something called absentee precincts. Nowadays all ballots are attributed to the voters precinct regardless of whether the voted absentee or on election day (or early voted).
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post was updated to reflect the county’s revised election results as of 11/14/08.

This is the ninth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
In Part 4, I analyzed the precincts that are located in the 33144 zip code. According to 2000 census estimates (the latest info I could get) the zip code is 69.7% Cuban. We discovered that in those 7 precincts John McCain obtained 69.7% of the vote.
Well I went back to the 2004 election results and found that in the same 7 precincts George W. Bush obtained 70.4% of the vote. That’s a shift of 0.7%.
There are some pretty big caveats to this analysis however. First off some of the precinct boundaries have changed and even the locations of the precinct houses have changed. However the precincts still generally represent the same areas. The next caveat is that absentee ballots were reported differently back then. They had something called absentee precincts. Nowadays all ballots are attributed to the voters precinct regardless of whether the voted absentee or on election day (or early voted).
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post was edited to reflect the county’s revised election results as of 11/14/08.

This is the seventh in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
In Part 1, I analyzed the precincts that are located in the 33175 zip code. According to 2000 census estimates (the latest info I could get) the zip code is 56.6% Cuban. We discovered that in those 14 precincts John McCain obtained 68.7% of the vote.
Well I went back to the 2004 election results and found that in the same 14 precincts George W. Bush obtained 71.8% of the vote. That’s a shift of 3.2%.
There are some pretty big caveats to this analysis however. First off some of the precinct boundaries have changed and even the locations of the precinct houses have changed. However the precincts still generally represent the same areas. The next caveat is that absentee ballots were reported differently back then. They had something called absentee precincts. Nowadays all ballots are attributed to the voters precinct regardless of whether the voted absentee or on election day (or early voted).
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post was edited to reflect the revised election results as of 11/14/08.

This is the seventh in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
In Part 3, I analyzed the precincts that are located in the 33165 zip code. According to 2000 census estimates (the latest info I could get) the zip code is 61.3% Cuban. We discovered that in those 16 precincts John McCain obtained 68.6% of the vote.
Well I went back to the 2004 election results and found that in the same 16 precincts George W. Bush obtained 71.5% of the vote. That’s a shift of 2.9%.
There are some pretty big caveats to this analysis however. First off some of the precinct boundaries have changed and even the locations of the precinct houses have changed. One precinct house was actually was moved to a neighboring zip code. However the precincts still generally represent the same areas. The next caveat is that absentee ballots were reported differently back then. They had something called absentee precincts. Nowadays all ballots are attributed to the voters precinct regardless of whether the voted absentee or on election day (or early voted).
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post has been edited to reflect the county’s revised election results as of 11/14/08.

This is the sixth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33010.

As you can see from the map above this zip code is basically the southern end of Hialeah.
Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 45,353 (100%)
Hispanic: 41,439 (91.4%)
Cuban: 29,982 (66.1%)
Median age: 39.4
So this an area that is more than 60% Cuban (at least in 2000).
There are 10 different precincts located in this zip code that reported results. For reference they are: 333 335 339 340 342 376 380 381 382 and 387.
A total of 10,414 votes for president were cast in these precincts.
John McCain received 6,583 of those votes or 63.2%
Barack Obama received 3,800 or 36.5%
Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area like the others we’ve looked at thus far with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.
This is another zip where McCain’s percentage is lower than Cuban pop. That would suggest that the Cubans in this zip were (at least slightly) less likely to vote for McCain than in other zips. But again the census data is from 2000 and doesn’t necessarily reflect voters but population instead.
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.

This is the fifth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33013.

As you can see from the map above this zip code is basically the eastern side of Hialeah.
Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 33,365 (100%)
Hispanic: 30,134 (90.3%)
Cuban: 24,388 (73.1%)
Median age: 41.2
So this an area that is almost 3/4 Cuban (at least in 2000).
There are 8 different precincts located in this zip code that reported results. For reference they are: 314 315 329 330 337 338 378 and 379.
A total of 9,406 votes for president were cast in these precincts.
John McCain received 6,441 of those votes or 68.5%
Barack Obama received 2,920 or 31.0%
Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area like the others we’ve looked at thus far with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.
This is the first zip that I analyze where McCain’s percentage is lower than Cuban pop. That would suggest that the Cubans in this zip were (at least slightly) less likely to vote for McCain than in other zips. But again the census data is from 2000 and doesn’t necessarily reflect voters but population instead.
The high cuban density zips I’ve analyzed thus far suggest that Obama probably topped out somewhere below 30% for Cubans.
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post was edited to reflect the county’s election results as of 11/14/08.

This is the fourth in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33144.

As you can see from the map above this zip code is basically West Miami and Flagami (insert Oscar Corral joke here). The western boundary is 87th Avenue, the eastern boundary is 57th avenue. The southern boundary is 16th street and the northern boundary is Flagler.
Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 25,332 (100%)
Hispanic: 22,451 (88.6%)
Cuban: 17,451 (68.9%)
Median age: 44.5
So this an area that is more than 2/3 Cuban. It’s the oldest zip we’ve examined so far.
There are 7 different precincts located in this zip code. For reference they are: 341 404 424 426 552 553 and 555.
A total of 8,555 votes for president were cast in these precincts.
John McCain received 5,964 of those votes or 69.7%
Barack Obama received 2,556 or 29.9%
Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area like the others we’ve looked at thus far with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.
As I’ve said before, Cubans are the most likely group in Miami-Dade to vote Republican (that is undisputed) and they made up 68.9% of the people in this area. Then it stands to reason that the Cubans in this area voted in significantly greater proportions for McCain than the average for the whole zip code (69.7%). We can therefore deduce again that the Cubans voted somewhere in the 70% – 80% range for McCain and that the average was brought down by the non-Cubans in living in the zip who are less likely to have voted for the GOP candidate.
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: This post was edited to reflect the county’s election results as of 11/14.

This is the third in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.
Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33165

As you can see from the map above this zip code is basically Westchester. The western boundary is the turnpike, the eastern boundary is 87th Avenue. The southern boundary is Miller Road and the northern boundary is a few blocks south of 8th St.
Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 57,079 (100%)
Hispanic: 46,400 (81.3%)
Cuban: 34,997 (61.3%)
Median age: 40.5
So this an area that is 60% Cuban and still relatively young.
There are 16 different precincts located in this zip code. For reference they are: 415 419 421 435 436 437 438 439 708 709 710 712 713 714 715 and 731.
A total of 25,802 votes for president were cast in these precincts.
John McCain received 17,701 of those votes or 68.6%
Barack Obama received 7,969 or 30.9%
Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.
As I before, Cubans are the most likely group in Miami-Dade to vote Republican (that is undisputed) and they made up 61.3% of the people in this area. Then it stands to reason that the Cubans in this area voted in significantly greater proportions for McCain than the average for the whole zip code (68.6%). We can therefore deduce that the Cubans voted somewhere in the 70% – 80% range for McCain and that the average was brought down by the non-Cubans in living in the zip who are less likely to have voted for the GOP candidate.
Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.
UPDATE: The post above was edited to reflect the county’s revised election results dated 11/14/08.

This is the second in a series of analyses of the election results to see whether or not the Cubans are abandoning the GOP. Other posts in this series can be found here.

Each time I will be examining a different zip code with a high proportion of Cuban-Americans living in it. This time it’s 33012

As you can see from the map above this zip code contains a large swath of Hialeah. The western boundary is the Palmetto expressway, the eastern boundary is Palm Avenue. The southern boundary is W. 29th ST and the northern boundary is W. 68th St.

Unfortunately the demographic data that I can obtain is somewhat dated (2000 census):
Total pop: 74,948 (100%)
Hispanic: 67,475 (90%)
Cuban: 49,613 (66.2%)
Median age: 40.2

So this an area that is 2/3 Cuban and still relatively young.
There are 20 different precincts located in this zip code. For reference they are: 316 318 319 321 323 324 325 326 328 331 332 336 354 361 362 363 374 375 377 and 386. Curiously, no votes were tabulated for 386.

A total of 22,313 votes for president were cast in these precincts.

John McCain received 14,862 of those votes or 66.6%
Barack Obama received 7,353 or 33%

Again we don’t exactly know how many of those votes were cast by Cubans or the median age of those Cubans but it’s pretty clear that this area with it’s large Cuban population was firmly in McCain’s camp.

As I mentioned in the comments on my first post about this matter, Cubans are the most likely group in Miami-Dade to vote Republican (that is undisputed) and they made up 66.2% of the people in this area. Then it stands to reason that the Cubans in this area voted in significantly greater proportions for McCain than the average for the whole zip code (66.6%). We can therefore deduce that the Cubans voted somewhere in the 70% – 80% range for McCain and that the average was brought down by the non-Cubans in living in the zip.

Until next time, I’ll be searching for the shift.

UPDATE: The post above was edited to reflect the county’s revised election results dated 11/14.